PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: predictions and arrivals
From: John Hernlund hernlund@.......
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2000 11:13:33 -0700 (MST)

On Wed, 6 Sep 2000, R.SHANMUGASUNDARAM wrote:
> The concept of the theory is very simple. ie. whenever
> the earth faces any external/internal forces, that will activate
> the change in inclination angle and it ultimately affected the
> platetectonics with a result came out as an earthquake or a
> volcanic eruption.
> Regards,

I hate to be the one to play devil's advocate here (well not really), but a
few questions might be:
- By inclination angle do you mean the orientation of the Earth's rotational
axis?  True polar wander probably occurs, but the change in the inertia tensor
which determines this effect depends on many factors (some internal) that
cannot be accurately tracked.
- How can we keep track of ALL the forces that might contribute to the stress
- If we knew the stress field, how can we predict activity based on our
incomplete knowledge of fault distributions, frictions, orientiations,
etc. (especially faults which do not break the surface).

John Hernlund
Department of Geological Sciences
Arizona State University
E-mail: hernlund@.......


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Larry Cochrane <cochrane@..............>