PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Earthquake prediction messages
From: "steve hammond" shammon1@.............
Date: Sun, 17 Sep 2000 21:42:21 -0700

Arie, I want to make sure we don't confuse the concepts of contributing and
gaining knowledgeable insight from other's and making predictions. I can
site one real important ULF record. It was recorded just before the Loma
Prieta earthquake. There is also ULF gear down at Parkfield. My concern is
with making predictions that serve to worry people not ULF or doing
something different. This is how I view ULF-- Other's will have to speak up
if they feel the need. There are a lot of people in the PSN that feel there
is something worth looking into when it comes to ULF. In 1990 when the
original PSN BBS in San Jose was started, there was a ULF upload
subdirectory and Steve Nicholas and a few other's uploaded a lot of files.
So we have a history here. The PSN does ULF too. If you would like, I still
have the ULF data file that Steve uploaded and I could ship them to you if
you would like to get a look.
Send me your address off-line.
Regards, Steve Hammond  PSN San Jose
Aptos, California

-----Original Message-----
From: Arie Verveer 
To: psn-l@.............. 
Date: Sunday, September 17, 2000 9:15 PM
Subject: Re: Earthquake prediction messages

>Hi, Good remarks all around. It is important to distinguish between
>science and the views of individuals. I for one monitor the ULF
>background radiation and on occasions have found some remarkable
>coincidences between large quakes and activity on this wave band.
>It has been reported by some researchers that there can be an increase
>in the ULF-ELF background prior to quakes. What concerns me, how
>does the PSN community views my occasional postings to event list
>with some interesting ULF data.
>For example, today I have posted to files (000916a.au2, 000916a.au4)
>one file is a local quake and the other is the ULF - ELF background
>over the same time period. The observable pluses in the ULF - ELF
>data would appear to be related to the solar activity and its influence
>on our magnetic field. But what is very interesting is the quake occurred
>at the same time as the magnet pulse. From this, maybe, one can conclude
>that a quake can be triggered by a change in the magnetic field. If this
>is true then  this a an interesting find. By the way there is another local
>quake today, that occurred during a magnetic storm ?
>From what I have observed in the ULF record, it would appear that on some
>occasions there are ULF (magnetic) emanations from some big quakes.
>deeper than 33 km. As for shallow quakes, nothing has been recorded.
>This type of research, in my option is worth doing but it can be easily
>by the "prediction" people. Though I don't totally dismiss there claims, It
>known that ELF- ULF (magnetic) field variations can in be perceived by
>It may be one some level that some rare people perceive something and
animals may
>also perceive the ULF - ELF (magnetic) background. Remember many creatures
use the
>earth magnetic field to navigate.
>So the question is, what is acceptable to the PSN community?  Difficult
>The local ULF background may one day give an indication that something is
going on, but
>in my opinion would not give a location of a  quake or even its exact time.
>>steve hammond wrote:
>> Hi Larry, thanks for the intervention. I support your comments.
>> FYI, the PSN has had two encounters with predictions in the past. Both
>> resulted in the group being cast into the position where we had to defend
>> our groups intentions including it's internal communications. One
>> involved Jack Cole who got the news media in a "news story feeding
>> after Jack reported he could predict earthquakes when his stereo speakers
>> popped and crackled and the other was a fellow that posted information
>> the AEC drilling tunnels along the fault lines to test atomic weapons,
>> predicting the testing would continue. Each time there was an earthquake,
>> that guy would claim it was another AEC test along the Hayward or SA
>> Let me get to the point. As a group the routinely reaches out to help
>> schools, libraries, and children's museums, one of the things we forget
>> consider is that several young kids read our comments because they have
>> interest in learning about earthquakes. Most don't know how to extract
>> fact from the not so factual information being presented. Let me relate a
>> true story to you. After one of Jack Cole's predictions, predicting a
>> earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area, a nine year old that lived
>> the street showed up at my door. She knew I recorded earthquakes and
>> to know what I thought. She was frightened, having lost a lot of sleep
>> Jack's predications. We talked on the front step for awhile and after she
>> left she brought back three other kids from the block. I repeated the
>> lecture on earthquakes, plate tectonics, and earthquake frequency along
>> given fault line. Larry, you might remember this story because you were a
>> part of the discussion that ensued.
>> We talked it around in the group and came up with a plan. 1) Only God and
>> the State Board of Emergency Services was allowed to make earthquake
>> predictions that included the PSN. 2) Any real prediction would have the
>> exact time, place, depth, and size and be supported by accepted
>> evidence. For example, if you look at the Parkfield prediction done by Al
>> Lynd at the USGS, it contains each of these components and is supported
>> scientific study. I for one still feel that the Parkfield event will
>> and what I would really like to know is why it has not in the given time
>> frame.
>> I view this new current round of predictions as being more theatrical in
>> nature and a grab for the spotlight because of the way they have been
>> presented. I don't feel the predictions are supported by scientific
>> and therefor are premature until a hypothesis has been clearly stated and
>> proven statistically to be valid.  I think a good spot for these
>> would be on Canie's site. Thanks Canie-- Because there, they will be
>> in a context that is of a predictive nature and understood to be outside
>> current bounds of seismology and the construction and operation of home
>> built seismographs.
>> Regards, Steve Hammond   PSN San Jose
>> Aptos, California
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Canie 
>> To: psn-l@.............. 
>> Date: Sunday, September 17, 2000 3:37 PM
>> Subject: Re: Earthquake prediction messages
>> >Hi Larry,
>> >
>> >I host a web site that is dedicated to the sort of quake prediction
>> >that are being made to the list.
>> >
>> >We limit who we allow to post due to obvious abusive communications that
>> >are possible on this subject, therefore people need to register prior to
>> >posting - its a one time registration and all e-mail addresses are kept
>> >confidential.
>> >
>> >Alan Jones is also one of our readers/posters who evaluated predictions.
>> >
>> >Anyone interested in posting their predictions should go to this site
>> >register:
>> >
>> >
>> >Canie
>> >
>> >At 12:18 PM 9/17/00 -0700, Larry Cochrane wrote:
>> >>All,
>> >>
>> >>I just sent an email asking the person who is sending the earthquake
>> >>"predictions"  messages too stop posting to our list. In my opinion,
>> >>others, these message are off topic.
>> >>
>> >>Having said that, and trying to keep an open mind about predicting
>> >>earthquakes,  I don't want to totally stop all prediction posts. If
>> someone
>> >>comes up with some equipment or away of making accurate predictions, I
>> >>one would like to hear about it since I live near large active faults!
>> >>just don't think earthquakes are predictable, so I'm not holding my
>> >>for this to happen.
>> >>
>> >>If someone is going to make a prediction it has to be as precises as
>> >>possible with a location, time frame and magnitude range. All three
>> >>parameters must be met before the prediction can be considered a "hit".
>> >>the predictor predicts a magnitude 5 and a magnitude 2.5 happens in the
>> >>time frame and location that doesn't count etc...
>> >>
>> >>Regards,
>> >>Larry Cochrane
>> >>Redwood City, PSN
>> >>
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>> >
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>Public Seismic Network Mailing List (PSN-L)
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Larry Cochrane <cochrane@..............>