PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Earthquake prediction messages
From: Mariotti Mauro mariottim@............
Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2000 10:15:32 +0200

Dear Sirs,

i would want to explain me also in this discussion about earthquake
I don't want to repeat obvious things about the needs of a reliable
prediction and
about time windows, magnitude windows, and so on...
BUT. The fact that always impress me is that anyone of all people that
claim to
be able to make earthquake forecast NOT use a combined system.
In other words, each of them use ONE method. Different from one another,
someone analyze "earthquake clouds", one "the sun", one "is sensitive",
one "the moon phases", others, "water wells", one "ultrasounds", HEI! STOP!
IT's become obvious that this kind of knowledge fragmentation will not lead
to any place!
Maybe the clouds could tell us something of inteersting but, alone, the cannot
predict earthquakes.
Someone could claim that atmosferic pressure anomalyes could tell us
something of interesting
about earhquake genesis? We could say: OK!
BUT. One interesting experiment should be to put ALL of these informations,
develop a multisignal analyze method and try to make predictions.

One other important thing is that each area is different from other areas.
Maybe one method that someone develop for his own area is good and refining it
could have a 99% of success, but moving the method in a different place the
method could become without sense.

Earthquake prediction I think will be possible, WHEN, all the peoples in the
earth will wants to share their knowledge with others.
At that moment all will become able to predict earhquake in their own area.

I'm sure that Mr.Shanmugasundaram (that make prediction with the Sun),
or Mr. Boyko Iliev (that make predictions with moon phases),
or SYGYZY that i don't remember how,
could make interesting global evaluations of quake risk present in that area,
and that window time, BUT they need to be helped, or maybe they could help us,
seismologist to be in warning of others parameters that we should monitor
each of us in our area, using other sensors, tiltmeteres, elf analysis, 
statistical analysis and so on...
In this way (maybe) when:

Mr.Shanmugasundaram communicate an alert for example Afganistan,
and also Iliev communicate an alert for that area in the same time window
and one Afganistan seismologist record a strange tilt, radon emission, and
a strange seismic sequence, and so on, we could state: 
In this way in time, we could be able to predict great earthquakes with
magnitude over 5.5, without be worried of any 4.0 3.0 that don't cause 
serious damage.

Imagine for a moment if you was able to predict taiwan earthquake or
of last year or the turkish sequence. Maybe thousands of life could be saved.

And, please, don't tell me that this kind of international research has
been done,
i don't believe it. Maybe only few people as PSN could make this research,
we don't seem to be divided by States, Country, University, Politics,
Religions and
Social degree... We are amateurs and may be we could have success. But....

Mauro Mariotti


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