PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: predictions
From: barry lotz gbl@.......
Date: Sat, 23 Sep 2000 06:22:04 -0700

    I agree. I believe by looking at previous seismicity one can determine zones
of potential activity. I realize that probability is mans best guess from a lack
of understanding. I am not a firm believer in an event occuring on a specific
fault known by man.

John Hernlund wrote:

> Hi All,
>    I just moved to LA, and have just been going through the messages
> concerning prediction. This is a very interesting topic indeed.  I had the
> pleasure of attending a symposium last week which went through several
> statistical models and fancy number schemes which may be applied to
> prediction.  The best talk was given by Dave Jackson, who has been interested
> in this topic for some time now.  He used only raw data from the past to try
> and model future activity...and the result: you have a better idea of
> earthquake risk from looking at a map of previous seismicity than just about
> any other method.  I think that anybody will find this simple method hard to
> beat!


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Larry Cochrane <cochrane@..............>