PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Predictions
From: Stephen & Kathy skmort@............
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 23:12:44 -0700

```FYI,,  Following this little introduction, is a simple study I did a few
years ago!!   Since then I have tried to correlate the events to Solid
Earth Tide,,,   so far I have found no correlation!!    My conclusion at
this point is that I think there may be a moon and or sun tide
connection, but like trying to predict the position in the bending cycle
where a wire will finally break, that you bend with your fingers, there
appears to be a similar problem with trying to tie a tidal phase point
to quakes????  It simply breaks when it is ready, no matter where in the
tidal cycle of bending it happens to be????   The complexity of water
tides may also contribute to the problem for events that happen in the
vicinity of ocean tides?????   The reason I feel that there may be a
phase connection, becomes clear from the following study where we see
that the time of the new moon, where we have the greatest tidal motion,
also favors the greatest number of quakes??????    I am open to
correction, other studies, other data, and or other conclusions!!!!
Stephen
PSN Station #55

Subject:
Large quakes (mag. 8 and above) and their relationship to Moon phases,
using data found over the web at the following links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=-m&img=Moon.evif

Using the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom
link to compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or
greater since 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not
have times listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to
UTC time for compatibility with the Moon phase link.

After finding the data, the next problem is determining how to
illustrate it with statistics!  Statistics can be used in many ways to
manipulate data!   Do we use only one or two days around the new and
full moon and compare that to the total, or should we divide it into
approx. 4 equal quadrants?   For my simple analysis I will use 4
quadrants.   The moon link above uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete
cycle, so I will use approx. 7.35 days per quadrant, which when related
to the phases works out to about the following:
New moon quadrant equals                  0 to 15 %
Full moon quadrant equals                 85 to 100 %
first and last quarter quadrant equals    16 to 86 %
When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the following:
Quakes during New moon               =   15
Quakes during Full moon              =    7
Quakes during First & Last quarter   =   13
When we combine the New and Full quarters to compare with First and Last
quarters we get:
Quakes during New & Full moon        =   22
Conclusion:
The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon quadrant by a little more
than double!
The combined New and Full quadrants favor the First and Last quadrants
by not quite double!
Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe that there was no statistical
correlation between quakes and Moon phases???     Perhaps if we added
the mag. 6 and 7 quakes we would find different conclusions,,,,   that
is for someone else to do!!!

List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With percent of Moon Phase listed
0% = New Moon,  100% = Full Moon,    50% = either First or Last Quarter

#   Moon  Year    Mo.  Day    UTC      Place        Approx.
Phase                     Time                    Mag.
1    ??%   1556  Jan.   23     ??      China           8
2    ??%   1668  Aug.   17     ??      Turkey          8
3    ??%   1700  Jan.   26     ??      Vancouver       9
************************************************
4    10%   1755   Nov.   1    10:16    Portugal        8.7
5     0%   1811   Dec.  16    08:00    Missouri        8.1
6    33%   1812   Feb.   7    09:45    Missouri        8
7    43%   1855   Jan.  24    10:11    New Zealand     8
8    20%   1891   Oct.  27    21:38    Japan           8
9    21%   1896   Jun.  15    19:32    Japan           8.5
10    91%   1897   Jun.  12    11:06    India           8.3
11    29%   1899   Sep.  10    21:41    Alaska          8
12     8%   1905   Jul.   5    09:40    Mongolia        8.4
13    41%   1906   Jan.  31    15:36    Colombia        8.8
14     9%   1906   Aug.  17    00:40    Chile           8.2
15    29%   1920   Dec.  16    12:05    China           8.6
16    34%   1933   Mar.   2    17:31    Japan           8.4
17     0%   1934   Jan.  15    08:43    India           8.1
18    88%   1938   Nov.  10    20:18    Alaska          8.2
19    54%   1944   Dec.   7    04:35    Japan           8.1
20    48%   1946   Aug.   4    17:51    Dom. Repub.     8.0
21     6%   1946   Dec.  20    19:19    Japan           8.1
22     5%   1949   Aug.  22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is.  8.1
23     4%   1950   Aug.  15    14:09    Tibet           8.6
24    91%   1952   Nov.   4    16:58    Russia          9
25    51%   1957   Mar.   9    14:22    Alaska          9.1
26    90%   1957   Dec.   4    03:37    Mongolia        8.1
27     6%   1960   May   22    19:11    Chile           9.5
28    99%   1964   Mar.  28    03:36    Alaska          9.2
29     5%   1965   Feb.   4    05:01    Alaska          8.7
30     2%   1970   Jul.  31    17.08    Colombia        8
31    28%   1985   Sep.  19    13:17    Mexico          8
32     0%   1986   May    7    22:47    Alaska          8
33     0%   1994   Jun.   9    00:33    Bolivia         8.2
34    76%   2000   Nov.  16    04:54    New Ireland     8
35     7%   2001   Jun.  23    20:33    Peru            8.4
36     0%   2003   Sep.  25    19:50    Japan           8.3
37    91%   2004   Dec.  23    14:59    Macquarie       8.1
38    99%   2004   Dec.  26    00:59    Sumatra         9.0

tchannel wrote:
> Hi Folks,  Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions.
> We all can predict earthquakes, if we keep the "when" and "where"
> nonspecific.   But on a serious note, are there any scientific tools
> used?   Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part?   I have
> asked this question to several people and received just as many opinions.
>
> Thanks, Ted

FYI,,  Following this little introduction,
is a simple study I did a few years ago!!   Since then I have tried to
correlate the events to Solid Earth Tide,,,   so far I have found no
correlation!!    My conclusion at this point is that I think there may
be a moon and or sun tide connection, but like trying to predict the
position in the bending cycle where a wire will finally break, that you
bend with your fingers, there appears to be a similar problem with
trying to tie a tidal phase point to quakes????  It simply breaks when
it is ready, no matter where in the tidal cycle of bending it happens
to be????   The complexity of water tides may also contribute to the
problem for events that happen in the vicinity of ocean tides?????
The reason I feel that there may be a phase connection, becomes clear
from the following study where we see that the time of the new moon,
where we have the greatest tidal motion, also favors the greatest
number of quakes??????    I am open to correction, other studies, other
data, and or other conclusions!!!!
Stephen
PSN Station #55

Subject:
Large quakes (mag. 8 and above) and their relationship to Moon phases,
using data found over the web at the following links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=-m&img=Moon.evif

Using the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom
link to compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or
greater since 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not
have times listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to
UTC time for compatibility with the Moon phase link.

After finding the data, the next problem is determining how to
illustrate it with statistics!  Statistics can be used in many ways to
manipulate data!   Do we use only one or two days around the new and
full moon and compare that to the total, or should we divide it into
approx. 4 equal quadrants?   For my simple analysis I will use 4
quadrants.   The moon link above uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete
cycle, so I will use approx. 7.35 days per quadrant, which when related
to the phases works out to about the following:
New moon quadrant equals                  0 to 15 %
Full moon quadrant equals                 85 to 100 %
first and last quarter quadrant equals    16 to 86 %
When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the
following:
Quakes during New moon               =   15
Quakes during Full moon              =    7
Quakes during First & Last quarter   =   13
When we combine the New and Full quarters to compare with First and
Last quarters we get:
Quakes during New & Full moon        =   22
Conclusion:
The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon quadrant by a little more
than double!
The combined New and Full quadrants favor the First and Last quadrants
by not quite double!
Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe that there was no statistical
correlation between quakes and Moon phases???     Perhaps if we added
the mag. 6 and 7 quakes we would find different conclusions,,,,   that
is for someone else to do!!!

List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With percent of Moon Phase listed
0% = New Moon,  100% = Full Moon,    50% = either First or Last Quarter

#   Moon  Year    Mo.  Day    UTC      Place        Approx.
Phase                     Time                    Mag.
1    ??%   1556  Jan.   23     ??      China           8
2    ??%   1668  Aug.   17     ??      Turkey          8
3    ??%   1700  Jan.   26     ??      Vancouver       9
************************************************
4    10%   1755   Nov.   1    10:16    Portugal        8.7
5     0%   1811   Dec.  16    08:00    Missouri        8.1
6    33%   1812   Feb.   7    09:45    Missouri        8
7    43%   1855   Jan.  24    10:11    New Zealand     8
8    20%   1891   Oct.  27    21:38    Japan           8
9    21%   1896   Jun.  15    19:32    Japan           8.5
10    91%   1897   Jun.  12    11:06    India           8.3
11    29%   1899   Sep.  10    21:41    Alaska          8
12     8%   1905   Jul.   5    09:40    Mongolia        8.4
13    41%   1906   Jan.  31    15:36    Colombia        8.8
14     9%   1906   Aug.  17    00:40    Chile           8.2
15    29%   1920   Dec.  16    12:05    China           8.6
16    34%   1933   Mar.   2    17:31    Japan           8.4
17     0%   1934   Jan.  15    08:43    India           8.1
18    88%   1938   Nov.  10    20:18    Alaska          8.2
19    54%   1944   Dec.   7    04:35    Japan           8.1
20    48%   1946   Aug.   4    17:51    Dom. Repub.     8.0
21     6%   1946   Dec.  20    19:19    Japan           8.1
22     5%   1949   Aug.  22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is.  8.1
23     4%   1950   Aug.  15    14:09    Tibet           8.6
24    91%   1952   Nov.   4    16:58    Russia          9
25    51%   1957   Mar.   9    14:22    Alaska          9.1
26    90%   1957   Dec.   4    03:37    Mongolia        8.1
27     6%   1960   May   22    19:11    Chile           9.5
28    99%   1964   Mar.  28    03:36    Alaska          9.2
29     5%   1965   Feb.   4    05:01    Alaska          8.7
30     2%   1970   Jul.  31    17.08    Colombia        8
31    28%   1985   Sep.  19    13:17    Mexico          8
32     0%   1986   May    7    22:47    Alaska          8
33     0%   1994   Jun.   9    00:33    Bolivia         8.2
34    76%   2000   Nov.  16    04:54    New Ireland     8
35     7%   2001   Jun.  23    20:33    Peru            8.4
36     0%   2003   Sep.  25    19:50    Japan           8.3
37    91%   2004   Dec.  23    14:59    Macquarie       8.1
38    99%   2004   Dec.  26    00:59    Sumatra         9.0

tchannel wrote:

Hi Folks,  Just curious about the
subject of Earthquake Predictions.   We all can predict earthquakes, if
we keep the "when" and "where" nonspecific.   But on a serious
note, are there any scientific tools used?   Do the phases of the moon
and the tides play a part?   I have asked this question to several
people and received just as many opinions.

Thanks, Ted

```