PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Predictions
From: shammon1@.............
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2007 02:14:27 -0400 (EDT)

Chris makes a lot of good points about predictions and I ag= ree with him. The main point in my mind is made with the understanding that= if you live in a zone with natural disasters, you need to understand the r= isks with your choice of locations and prepare for the possibilities that a= re associated with it.

On a personal note, I experienced another side effect assoc= iated with predictions following the Loma P event in 1989. I lived in South= San Jose and a young nine year old came to my front door because a guy nam= e Jack (I don=E2=80=99t remember his last name) had been on the local news = claiming he could predict earthquakes and in fact had predicted a big one i= n a few week. She was scared out of her wits and knowing I had seismographs= running at a local elementary school wanted to know if Jack=E2=80=99s pred= ictions were true.

What are the issues at hand?  1) Jack knows what he was talking about and we should all = prepare for the great event. 2) We should continue to prepare for the event= uality of a great event. 3) We should ignore the fact that a great event co= uld occur at any time. I=E2= =80=99ll leave the answer up to you. I spent a few hours talking to th= is child and from the experence gained a better understanding of the impact= it can have on people.


Regards, Steve Hammond

PSN San Jose, Aptos, CA

-----Original Message-----
From: ChrisAtUpw@.......
= Sent: Apr 20, 2007 8:23 PM
To: psn-l@..............
Subject: Re: Pr= edictions

In a message dated 2007/04/20, tchannel@.............. w= rites:

Just curious about the subj= ect of Earthquake Predictions. But on a serious note, are there any scienti= fic tools used? Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part? I have= asked this question to several people and received just as many opinions.<= /FONT>

Hi Ted,

       Type E= arthquake Prediction into Google?
       S= ee
       Short answer is that we don't know= .. Strong quakes may be associated with parts of the tide cycle. The questio= n is which cycle? The local background noise may decrease before a large qu= ake. There may be physical movement before shallower quakes, but you are un= likely to get much observable effect at the surface if the rupture is 100 k= m down. About 1/3 of quakes show precursor quakes. There may be a few cycle= s of very long period precursor. There may be changes in the water table, c= hanges in Radon emission, electric / RF field noise, animals seem to be abl= e to sense 'something'.....
       One th= ing is certain. If you say we will never be able to predict quakes and no f= unds to experiment are allocated, we WON'T develop the / any ability!! Even= if we could only get timely warning for a few quake locations / depths, th= e benefits could be very significant. A lot of the severe quakes are associ= ated with subduction zones, like those off the west coast of the Americas, = but the interval may be hundreds of years.

    &= nbsp;  Regards,

       Chris Chap= man

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