## PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Predictions
From: "tchannel" tchannel@..............
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2007 09:19:10 -0600

```Stephen and Everyone,  This is just great input....Stephen, Yes I sure =
would like to see your study expanded to include M6 and M7's.   I =
printed you message.   I wish I know something about Statistics.
Thanks, Ted
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Stephen & Kathy=20
To: psn-l@.................
Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 12:12 AM
Subject: Re: Predictions

FYI,,  Following this little introduction, is a simple study I did a =
few years ago!!   Since then I have tried to correlate the events to =
Solid Earth Tide,,,   so far I have found no correlation!!    My =
conclusion at this point is that I think there may be a moon and or sun =
tide connection, but like trying to predict the position in the bending =
cycle where a wire will finally break, that you bend with your fingers, =
there appears to be a similar problem with trying to tie a tidal phase =
point to quakes????  It simply breaks when it is ready, no matter where =
in the tidal cycle of bending it happens to be????   The complexity of =
water tides may also contribute to the problem for events that happen in =
the vicinity of ocean tides?????   The reason I feel that there may be a =
phase connection, becomes clear from the following study where we see =
that the time of the new moon, where we have the greatest tidal motion, =
also favors the greatest number of quakes??????    I am open to =
correction, other studies, other data, and or other conclusions!!!!
Stephen
PSN Station #55

Subject:
Large quakes (mag. 8 and above) and their relationship to Moon phases, =
using data found over the web at the following links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes

=
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=3D-m&img=3DMoon.ev=
if

Using the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom =
link to compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or =
greater since 1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not =
have times listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to =
UTC time for compatibility with the Moon phase link.

After finding the data, the next problem is determining how to =
illustrate it with statistics!  Statistics can be used in many ways to =
manipulate data!   Do we use only one or two days around the new and =
full moon and compare that to the total, or should we divide it into =
approx. 4 equal quadrants?   For my simple analysis I will use 4 =
quadrants.   The moon link above uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete =
cycle, so I will use approx. 7.35 days per quadrant, which when related =
to the phases works out to about the following:
New moon quadrant equals                  0 to 15 %
Full moon quadrant equals                 85 to 100 %
first and last quarter quadrant equals    16 to 86 %
When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the =
following:
Quakes during New moon               =3D   15
Quakes during Full moon              =3D    7
Quakes during First & Last quarter   =3D   13
When we combine the New and Full quarters to compare with First and =
Last quarters we get:
Quakes during New & Full moon        =3D   22
Conclusion:
The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon quadrant by a little more =
than double!
The combined New and Full quadrants favor the First and Last quadrants =
by not quite double!
Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe that there was no statistical =
correlation between quakes and Moon phases???     Perhaps if we added =
the mag. 6 and 7 quakes we would find different conclusions,,,,   that =
is for someone else to do!!!

List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With percent of Moon Phase listed
0% =3D New Moon,  100% =3D Full Moon,    50% =3D either First or Last =
Quarter

#   Moon  Year    Mo.  Day    UTC      Place        Approx.
Phase                     Time                    Mag.
1    ??%   1556  Jan.   23     ??      China           8
2    ??%   1668  Aug.   17     ??      Turkey          8
3    ??%   1700  Jan.   26     ??      Vancouver       9
************************************************
4    10%   1755   Nov.   1    10:16    Portugal        8.7
5     0%   1811   Dec.  16    08:00    Missouri        8.1
6    33%   1812   Feb.   7    09:45    Missouri        8
7    43%   1855   Jan.  24    10:11    New Zealand     8
8    20%   1891   Oct.  27    21:38    Japan           8
9    21%   1896   Jun.  15    19:32    Japan           8.5
10    91%   1897   Jun.  12    11:06    India           8.3
11    29%   1899   Sep.  10    21:41    Alaska          8
12     8%   1905   Jul.   5    09:40    Mongolia        8.4
13    41%   1906   Jan.  31    15:36    Colombia        8.8
14     9%   1906   Aug.  17    00:40    Chile           8.2
15    29%   1920   Dec.  16    12:05    China           8.6
16    34%   1933   Mar.   2    17:31    Japan           8.4
17     0%   1934   Jan.  15    08:43    India           8.1
18    88%   1938   Nov.  10    20:18    Alaska          8.2
19    54%   1944   Dec.   7    04:35    Japan           8.1
20    48%   1946   Aug.   4    17:51    Dom. Repub.     8.0
21     6%   1946   Dec.  20    19:19    Japan           8.1
22     5%   1949   Aug.  22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is.  8.1
23     4%   1950   Aug.  15    14:09    Tibet           8.6
24    91%   1952   Nov.   4    16:58    Russia          9
25    51%   1957   Mar.   9    14:22    Alaska          9.1
26    90%   1957   Dec.   4    03:37    Mongolia        8.1
27     6%   1960   May   22    19:11    Chile           9.5
28    99%   1964   Mar.  28    03:36    Alaska          9.2
29     5%   1965   Feb.   4    05:01    Alaska          8.7
30     2%   1970   Jul.  31    17.08    Colombia        8
31    28%   1985   Sep.  19    13:17    Mexico          8
32     0%   1986   May    7    22:47    Alaska          8
33     0%   1994   Jun.   9    00:33    Bolivia         8.2
34    76%   2000   Nov.  16    04:54    New Ireland     8
35     7%   2001   Jun.  23    20:33    Peru            8.4
36     0%   2003   Sep.  25    19:50    Japan           8.3
37    91%   2004   Dec.  23    14:59    Macquarie       8.1
38    99%   2004   Dec.  26    00:59    Sumatra         9.0

tchannel wrote:=20
Hi Folks,  Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions. =
We all can predict earthquakes, if we keep the "when" and "where" =
nonspecific.   But on a serious note, are there any scientific tools =
used?   Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part?   I have =
asked this question to several people and received just as many =
opinions.

Stephen and Everyone,  This is =
just great=20
input....Stephen, Yes I sure would like to see your study expanded to =
include M6=20
and M7's.   I printed you message.   I wish I know =
something=20
Thanks, Ted

----- Original Message -----
From:=20
Stephen &=20
Kathy
To: psn-l@..............
Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 =
12:12=20
AM
Subject: Re: Predictions
FYI,,  Following this =
little=20
introduction, is a simple study I did a few years ago!!   =
Since then=20
I have tried to correlate the events to Solid Earth =
Tide,,,   so far=20
I have found no correlation!!    My conclusion at this point =
is that=20
I think there may be a moon and or sun tide connection, but like =
trying to=20
predict the position in the bending cycle where a wire will finally =
break,=20
that you bend with your fingers, there appears to be a similar problem =
with=20
trying to tie a tidal phase point to quakes????  It simply breaks =
when it=20
is ready, no matter where in the tidal cycle of bending it happens to =
be????=20
The complexity of water tides may also contribute to the =
problem for=20
events that happen in the vicinity of ocean tides?????   The =
reason=20
I feel that there may be a phase connection, becomes clear from the =
following=20
study where we see that the time of the new moon, where we have the =
greatest=20
tidal motion, also favors the greatest number of=20
quakes??????    I am open to correction, other studies, =
other=20
data, and or other conclusions!!!!  Stephen  PSN =
Station=20
#55Subject:Large quakes (mag. 8 and =
above) and=20
their relationship to Moon phases, using data found over the web at =
the=20
edia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakeshttp://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth/action?opt=3D=
-m&img=3DMoon.evifUsing=20
the top link to find quake times and mag., then using the bottom link =
to=20
compare them to moon phases, I found 38 quakes of mag. 8 or greater =
since=20
1556, of which I used 35 because the first three did not have times=20
listed.  Where local times were listed I converted them to UTC =
time for=20
compatibility with the Moon phase link.After finding the data, =
the=20
next problem is determining how to illustrate it with =
statistics! =20
Statistics can be used in many ways to manipulate data!   Do =
we use=20
only one or two days around the new and full moon and compare that to =
the=20
total, or should we divide it into approx. 4 equal =
my simple analysis I will use 4 quadrants.   The moon link =
above=20
uses approx. 29.4 days for a complete cycle, so I will use approx. =
7.35 days=20
per quadrant, which when related to the phases works out to about the=20
=
equals           &=
nbsp;     =20
0 to 15 %Full moon quadrant=20
=
equals           &=
nbsp;    =20
85 to 100 %first and last quarter quadrant =
equals    16 to=20
86 %When we sort the 35 phase data into their quadrants we get the =

following:Quakes during New=20
=
moon           &nb=
sp;  =20
=3D   15Quakes during Full=20
=
moon           &nb=
sp; =20
=3D    7Quakes during First & Last =
quarter  =20
=3D   13When we combine the New and Full quarters to =
compare with=20
First and Last quarters we get:Quakes during New & Full=20
moon        =3D  =20
22Conclusion:The New moon quadrant favors the Full moon =
little more than double!The combined New and Full quadrants favor =
the=20
First and Last quadrants by not quite=20
double!Interesting!!!!!    I was led to believe =
that there=20
was no statistical correlation between quakes and Moon=20
phases???     Perhaps if we added the mag. 6 and 7 =
quakes=20
we would find different conclusions,,,,   that is for =
someone else=20
to do!!!List of mag. 8 quakes or greater,,   With =
percent of=20
Moon Phase listed0% =3D New Moon,  100% =3D Full =
Moon,   =20
50% =3D either First or Last=20
=
Quarter          &n=
bsp;           &nb=
sp;=20
Please forgive any TYPOs  #   Moon =20
Year    Mo.  Day   =20
UTC     =20
Place       =20
Approx.    =20
=
Phase           &n=
bsp;        =20
=
Time           &nb=
sp;       =20
Mag. 1    ??%   1556  =
Jan.  =20
23     ??     =20
China          =20
8 2    ??%   1668  =
Aug.  =20
17     ??     =20
Turkey         =20
8 3    ??%   1700  =
Jan.  =20
26     ??     =20
Vancouver      =20
=
9************************************************ 4 &nb=
sp; =20
10%   1755   Nov.   1   =20
10:16    =
Portugal       =20
8.7 5     0%   1811   =

Dec.  16    08:00   =20
Missouri       =20
8.1 6    33%   1812  =20
Feb.   7    09:45   =20
Missouri       =20
8 7    43%   1855   =
Jan. =20
24    10:11    New=20
Zealand     8 8    =
20%  =20
1891   Oct.  27    =
21:38   =20
Japan          =20
8 9    21%   1896   =
Jun. =20
15    19:32   =20
Japan          =20
8.510    91%   1897   =
Jun. =20
12    11:06   =20
India          =20
8.311    29%   1899   =
Sep. =20
10    21:41   =20
812     8%   1905  =20
Jul.   5    09:40   =20
Mongolia        =
8.413   =20
41%   1906   Jan.  31   =20
15:36    =
Colombia       =20
8.814     9%   1906   =
Aug. =20
17    00:40   =20
Chile          =20
8.215    29%   1920   =
Dec. =20
16    12:05    China=20
=20
8.616    34%   1933   =
Mar.  =20
2    17:31   =20
Japan          =20
8.417     0%   1934   =
Jan. =20
15    08:43   =20
India          =20
8.118    88%   1938   =
Nov. =20
10    20:18   =20
8.219    54%   1944   =
Dec.  =20
7    04:35   =20
Japan          =20
8.120    48%   1946   =
Aug.  =20
4    17:51    Dom.=20
Repub.     8.021    =20
6%   1946   Dec.  20   =20
19:19   =20
Japan          =20
8.122     5%   1949   =
Aug. =20
22    04:01    Q. Charlo. Is. =20
8.123     4%   1950   =
Aug. =20
15    14:09   =20
Tibet          =20
8.624    91%   1952   =
Nov.  =20
4    16:58   =20
Russia         =20
925    51%   1957   =
Mar.  =20
9    14:22   =20
9.126    90%   1957   =
Dec.  =20
4    03:37   =20
Mongolia       =20
8.127     6%   1960  =20
May   22    19:11   =20
Chile          =20
9.528    99%   1964   =
Mar. =20
28    03:36   =20
9.229     5%   1965  =20
Feb.   4    05:01   =20
8.730     2%   1970   =
Jul. =20
31    17.08   =20
Colombia        =
831   =20
28%   1985   Sep.  19   =20
13:17   =20
Mexico         =20
832     0%   1986  =20
May    7    22:47   =20
833     0%   1994  =20
Jun.   9    00:33   =20
Bolivia        =20
8.234    76%   2000   =
Nov. =20
16    04:54    New=20
Ireland     835     =
7%  =20
2001   Jun.  23    =
20:33   =20
Peru            =

8.436     0%   2003   =
Sep. =20
25    19:50   =20
Japan          =20
8.337    91%   2004   =
Dec. =20
23    14:59   =20
Macquarie       =
8.138   =20
99%   2004   Dec.  26   =20
00:59   =20
Sumatra        =20
9.0tchannel wrote:=20

Hi Folks,  Just curious about =
the subject=20
of Earthquake Predictions.   We all can predict =
earthquakes, if we=20
keep the "when" and "where" nonspecific.   But on a =
serious=20
note, are there any scientific tools used?   Do the =
phases of=20
the moon and the tides play a part?   I have asked this =
question=20
to several people and received just as many opinions.

Thanks,=20
Ted
```