PSN-L Email List Message

Subject: Re: Predictions
From: Angel sismos@..............
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2007 15:24:59 +0000

Hello Ted,

Just about the entire issue of "Seismological Reaserch Letters" Vol 78, Number 1 Jan/Feb 2007 is dedicated to "Regional Earthquake likelihood Models"  They don't use the word "predict" and almost don't use the words "forecast" but just the same "likelihood" is one of the bricks in the road to "predict". 


I have a articles on "predicting" earthquakes using well levels in Greece, they have predicted a few.  It is VERY localized but works for that local. The reference is:

"Pre-seismic responses of underground water levels and temperature concerning a 4.8 mag earthquake in Greece"  Tectonophysis, 170 (1989) 165-169

I attended a lecture by the author who is not a seismologist but a civil engineer working building codes and warning systems for small villages in Greece. 

In my opinion early warning is the holy grail of seismology.  Volcanologist are pretty good at this, they came close with St; Hellens, nailed it at Pinatubo and several other places.  


Friday, April 20, 2007, 10:24:41 PM, you wrote:


Hi Folks,  Just curious about the subject of Earthquake Predictions.   We all can predict earthquakes, if we keep the "when" and "where" nonspecific.   But on a serious note, are there any scientific tools used?   Do the phases of the moon and the tides play a part?   I have asked this question to several people and received just as many opinions.


Thanks, Ted


Best regards,


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